Chapter 68 The Sharp Rising Sun Commentator
As soon as the whole six o'clock view came out, Xiao Qi smiled from the bottom of his heart.
Dad is worthy of being a dad, and he is indeed a very talented person. Although he is far from the summary level of the economists in later generations I have seen, please be careful. What Dad is talking about now is not an after-summary, but a warning issued in advance. The meaning of the two is completely different.
Those who issued warnings in advance were called financial experts, and those who summarized in the aftermath were called hindsight. Of course, the attention they can attract is not comparable.
Moreover, Xiao Xu's language style is as sharp as ever, especially when he talks about the collapse of Japan's bubble economy again, which obviously allows everyone to compare the similarities and differences with the current China.
The next day, Xuri published the second commentary article "The rapid rise in housing prices and the survival dependence of small and medium-sized enterprises."
As local finances rely on land sales increasingly severely and house prices rise too quickly, they will first kidnap local finances, causing local fiscal expenditures to tilt towards real estate, and also causing bank funds to tilt towards real estate with higher profits, which will lead to difficulties in small and medium-sized enterprises that truly continue to turn over bank credit, and may even go bankrupt on a large scale due to the interruption of the capital chain.
The rapid rise in housing prices will inevitably lead to a decline in people's living standards, because everyone will save money to buy houses, and domestic demand will drop sharply, which will once again hit the survival ability of small and medium-sized enterprises.
The rapid rise in housing prices will cause people who invest in real estate to make very generous profits. Even those who speculate in real estate will have several times higher profits than ten to fifteen percent of the manufacturing industry. This will cause capital to flow towards real estate that is easy to make money. In other words, manufacturing bosses will no longer manufacture goods, but will directly speculate in real estate, which will cause a large number of small and medium-sized factories to go bankrupt.
The rapid rise in housing prices, combined with the appreciation of the RMB, has further aggravated the withdrawal of factory owners, and the number of bankruptcies of small and medium-sized factories has increased again.
The funds of small and medium-sized enterprises leave the real estate industry and invest in real estate will in turn prompt the real estate prices to soar again, thus increasing the real estate bubble sharply, thus affecting the real economy... Such a cycle will form a vicious cycle of the real economy and impact the country's main economic lifeline.
Ordinary people regard these two comments as fun articles, but when their gazes rise above the provincial level, many people begin to reflect.
There are not many small and medium-sized factories in Shuchuan, and even fewer rely on exports to make a living, so it feels not that profound.
However, when leaders in eastern Guangdong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang felt a little scared when they saw two articles.
Especially when we combine our local actual situation, we agree that this kind of comments and predictions make sense, at least there is some truth. The development of things seems to be following what the Rising Sun said.
On Saturday afternoon, November 25, the Secretary of the Shuchuan Provincial Party Committee, Yu Chengsheng, received a call from a former member of the Central Party School, who is currently the Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee of the Eastern Guangdong Provincial Party Committee. Mu Xuefei.
In terms of official positions, both of them are provincial party secretary. However, because of the particularity of eastern Guangdong, their provincial party secretary is far higher than that of Shuchuan.
However, Mu Xuefei is very elegant, has his own ideas when speaking and doing things, and is not arrogant and strong, so among the group of students from the Central Party School, he has a very good reputation.
After a greeting, Mu Xuefei suddenly made a request and said, "Chengsheng, how about you lend me someone?"
Yu Chengsheng was stunned, but he was silent on the surface, "Haha, I'm not kidding, are you? You are full of talents in eastern Guangdong, how could you come to our Shuchuan to borrow people?"
"There are talents everywhere, and not all talents in eastern Guangdong." Mu Xuefei smiled heartily, "Don't worry, I won't lend you your confidant and beloved general, I will lend you a newspaper commentator. I want to know several issues from him."
"Oh? Which commentator is it that can alarm Lao Mu, you?" Yu Chengsheng was really surprised at this time.
"There is a commentator named Xuri in your Shuchuan Life News. Some of his views are very interesting. If possible, I would like to invite him to come to our eastern Guangdong first." Mu Xuefei said in a calm voice.
Yu Chengsheng's eyes turned, "Okay, that's fine. I'll find him first. How about answering you to Lao Mu on Monday?"
"Okay, thank you."
Mu Xuefei hung up the phone with a smile.
Holding his cell phone, Yu Chengsheng started to be stunned and immediately called, "Xiao Li, please find me the Shuchuan Life News for the past month. As long as there is an article written by a commentator named Xu Ri, you can bring it to me... Well, now, as soon as possible!"
The provincial party secretary said that he was naturally very fast in action. An hour later, just after dinner, two newspapers were placed in front of Yu Chengsheng.
"On the Impact of Exchange Rate Rising on Imports and Exports".
"The rapid rise in housing prices and the survival dependence of small and medium-sized enterprises."
Looking at the two titles, Yu Chengsheng understood why Mu Xuefei called to ask for someone. It turned out that he was just talking about Dongdong.
Wearing glasses and slowly reading, Yu Chengsheng's relaxed face gradually became solemn.
After closing his eyes and thinking for a moment, he began to read for the second time again. This time he was more careful than before, and his face became more solemn.
As he nodded constantly, Yu Chengsheng contacted the actual situation and was shocked to find that the current development of the country seemed to be moving in the direction that the Rising Sun said, and the consequences of this may have begun to appear now.
Thinking of this, Yu Chengsheng grabbed his cell phone and called Mu Xuefei, regardless of the fact that it was eight o'clock in the evening. "Old Mu, tell me honestly that the small and medium-sized factories in your places have really begun to go bankrupt recently?"
"There has not been a large number of bankruptcies, but hundreds of them have been closed one after another." Mu Xuefei smiled bitterly on the other side of the phone, "Although these hundreds are nothing compared to more than 100,000 factories in eastern Guangdong, I asked about the credit of major banks and found that small and medium-sized enterprises can no longer borrow money due to mortgage difficulties. The total amount of loans is 50% given to large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises, and the remaining 40% is given to real estate, and only the remaining 10% is not fully obtained by small and medium-sized enterprises!"
"In other words, the living conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises are even more serious than what the internal reference says?"
"Well, coupled with the continuous rise in exchange rates and the sharp decline in profits, they can no longer bear it." Mu Xuefei nodded, "So I want to ask Xuri how can I help them? I hope he can have real materials!"
"Didn't he tell a solution in the newspaper?"
"Hehe, how could he tell me the real specific measures? This is going to cause trouble!" Mu Xuefei smiled slightly, "I want to ask him in person and ask him to develop a set of overall feasible methods for me! Chengsheng, you have to help me!"
"I understand." Yu Chengsheng nodded solemnly, "East Guangdong is not only the eastern Guangdong in the south, but also the eastern Guangdong in the whole country! For the overall situation, of course I have to make some efforts!"
Chapter completed!