After the Japanese army was defeated in Guadalam, the base camp hurriedly made a series of predictions. Its "Judgement of the World Situation" made the following judgment:

Chapter 1: The U.S. and the United Kingdom’s trends

The United States and Britain will first plan the collapse of Germany and Italy, destroy the construction of Greater East Asia of the Empire; and then make preparations to attack the central headquarters of the Empire. In the future, they will strengthen cooperation in all aspects, diversify their combat effectiveness, and gradually launch an offensive with their powerful forces, attempt to force the Axis powers to surrender. The offensive will gradually reach ** after the second half of the Showa 18th year (1943). During this period, the United States will include North and South America under its wings, and will strive to substantially control the regimes of Africa, Australia, India, West Asia, Chongqing, etc., attempt to dominate the world after the war, thereby forcibly implementing all kinds of strategies that cover political strategies and strategies. According to this judgment, at present:

1. The United States and Britain will cooperate with the Soviet Union to vigorously plan and consume the combat power of Germany and Italy, and to free the countries within the German sphere of influence from their control. At the same time, they will mainly strive to encircle Germany from the Mediterranean side, especially the development of the Tunisian war has a great impact on its success or failure.

In addition, the United States and Britain may open up new fronts for Norway and the West Coast of the Iberian Peninsula.

In the Pacific and Indian Ocean, the United States will cooperate with Britain to use powerful forces to recapture the islands and Myanmar occupied by us in the Southwest Pacific and Aleutian. At the same time, it will strengthen its counter-offensive posture against Japan from China and will strive to use air force and submarine combat to destroy Japan's maritime transportation.

In addition, the United States and Britain are likely to attempt to carry out air strikes on key parts of the empire and occupied lands.

3. The United States and Britain will try their best to provide material assistance to the Soviet Union. In addition, the United States will secretly plan to obtain a base on the eastern Soviet territory.

3. The United States and Britain will use all kinds of means to urge Chongqing to fight against the war.

4. The United States and Britain will ensure the West Asia and Africa, and will work hard to strengthen the ties between Japan, Germany and Italy.

5. Australia will become increasingly firm in its fighting will, and in essence, it will rely solely on US aid under the American forces, strive to enhance its combat effectiveness and continue to fight against Japan.

6. India's anti-British movement, combined with its disposal against Gandhi, may have intensified, but due to the British suppression, there is no big result at present, and India will remain the base for a counterattack against Japan.

Second, Chongqing's trends

1. Chongqing's ability to resist the war will gradually weaken, and due to the complete realization of the empire's fundamental policy on dealing with China, its anti-Japanese camp will be greatly shaken, but they will firmly believe in the final victory of the United States and Britain and will not give up their will to continue the war of resistance.

2. Chongqing will rely more on US material assistance in the future and strive to cooperate with the Soviet Union in an attempt to assist the United States and Britain in strengthening and promoting its aviation operations against Japan, and assisting the United States and Britain in regaining Myanmar. Some action may be taken against the French Indochina.

Third, the trends of Germany and Italy

Germany will be determined to establish its undefeated situation and try its best to weaken the Soviet Union's ability to resist the war, and ensure the current situation in the Atlantic and Mediterraneans, while intensifying the war of maritime traffic destruction, so as to seek chaos in the United States and Britain in the guidance of war.

1. The German army will further launch an attack on the Soviet Union with the goal of defeating the Soviet army, but it is difficult to expect a level of pain that is sufficient to gain freedom of movement after next year. The Caucasus operations will be difficult within the year.

2. Although the results of Germany's traffic destruction war against the United States and Britain vary from time to time, the current period will be about 600,000 tons per month.

3. As long as Hitler and Mussolini are still there, the bond between Germany and Italy will not relax.

Fourth, the Soviet Union's trends

1. The Soviet Union will remain focused on the war against Germany, and the battle after the spring may be passive, but will launch another winter offensive this year.

2. The Soviet Union will not actively challenge the empire, nor will it provide military bases to the United States. However, attention should be paid to the secret cooperation between the United States and the Soviet Union against Japan, which is related to the transportation of materials aid to the Soviet Union through the eastern Soviet territory.

Fifth, the trends of neutral countries (omitted)

Sixth, European Peace (omitted)

Seventh, the ability of countries to engage in war

1. The ability of the United States and Britain to engage in war

(1) The United States may maintain its wartime force of 7 million, and human resources will not be difficult at present.

The human resources in the UK have roughly reached their limits.

(II) The United States' ability to fight war will roughly reach its peak within one or two years, but the naval power will further increase by the 21st of Showa (1946). In addition, with the shift to the wartime system, various economic and social problems will arise, but it is still difficult to see that this will have a significant impact on its ability to fight war.

(III) Britain's ability to engage in war will currently be basically maintained.

(IV) The military power of the United States and Britain relies on its maritime transportation capacity to a great extent. Therefore, the loss of ships will have a great impact on their war. However, as the current situation continues, with the increase in the United States' shipbuilding capacity, the comprehensive ship ownership of the United States and Britain will gradually increase.

2. Chongqing's ability to resist war

Under the current situation, we can continue to adhere to the passive war of resistance.

(I) Rich human resources.

(2) Although the fiscal and economic difficulties are extremely difficult, food and light weapons are still self-sufficiency, so we cannot expect the rapid collapse of the War of Resistance System.

(III) The army has about 300 ground troops (including about 110 divisions in the central division), and about 150 air force units. Although the equipment is poor, it does not affect passive combat. The US Air Force units stationed in China have recently reached 90 and are gradually increasing.

(IV) Chiang Kai-shek's status is still very solid, and his ability to command has not yet been weakened.

3. Germany and Italy's ability to fight

(1) Germany can basically maintain its current national strength.

(A) Human resources are not sufficient, but food can basically meet the needs of its circle of influence.

(B) Although the military industry production capacity is sufficient, it requires great efforts to obtain some military resources.

(C) Hitler's prestige is very high, and the military and civilians have strong will to fight. At present, the whole country is unanimously vowing to the survival of the country and nation, and move towards completing the war. However, great efforts are still needed to maintain the public order of the occupied land and the guidance of the country.

(II) Although Italy's ability to fight wars is mostly dependent on Germany, Mussolini's political power is still very strong. Therefore, it is not difficult to maintain its combat effectiveness under the current situation.

4. The Soviet Union's ability to carry out war

After this spring, it is possible to fight against Germany with existing troops (370 low-equipped sniper divisions, 67,000 tanks, and 45,000 aircraft).

In the eastern part of the Soviet Union, the existing troops will be basically maintained (about 700,000 ground troops, about 1,000 tanks and aircraft, and frames).

(1) Although there is still enough human resources, if the field army suffers a major blow this year, it will gradually become embarrassing after next year.

(1) The military industry production capacity around the end of this year will be about 6070% of the previous war.

(III) Although the food has gradually become tight, it has not yet developed to the extent that the domestic order is disordered.

(IV) Stalin's political power is still extremely strong, and the military and civilians' will to resist the war is still under maintenance.

I have to say that this prediction is reliable. However, it can only predict the general direction of war, but it cannot save its own destiny.

Maintaining the war not only requires a large number of well-trained soldiers, but also the supply of a large amount of materials supported by national strength. The Japanese army's disastrous defeat in the Battle of Guadalcanal caused a series of problems. The failure to attack Guadal Island suffered a heavy blow to the Japanese base camp and the government in terms of material and spirit.

The Japanese base camp judged that the counterattack of the US-Australia coalition against Solomon was quite powerful. The base camp was preparing for the failure of the total attack under the policy of resolutely ensuring the key areas of the Solomon Islands. As the battle situation intensified, the combat power was consumed more and more, and the damage of the ship also increased step by step. In order to rectify this situation and to enable the 8th Front to complete a new task, it was necessary to first solve the ship problem. After the 2nd and 3rd Battle of Solomon, in order to supplement combat effectiveness, the navy's need for ships became increasingly urgent.

As the situation was unfavorable to the Japanese army, the issue of lifting the requisition of civilian ships changed to increasing the requisition, and the number was huge. The Army Command proposed to the Army Province to increase the total token of ships of 370,000. Then, the Navy proposed to the Planning Institute to increase the total token of ships of 250,000. The Army and Navy's request, which totaled 620,000,000, was unacceptable in terms of national strength. Therefore, it had to lead to sharp opposition between the Army Command and the military and political authorities.

As the Army recruited 200,000 gross tonnage ships three months ago, the Japanese base finally took a breath in the adjustment of national strength and combat, but this was only a short moment. The US-Australia coalition increased the pressure on the counterattack of the Southeast Pacific with Guadalam as the center. In terms of timing, speed and scale, it was indeed enough to fundamentally destroy the balance between national strength and combat.

The Japanese government made the greatest efforts to minimize the impact of the additional expropriation on national strength, but the production of steel, fuel supply, and the prospects of shipbuilding were still very worrying. If ships and materials were needed, we must try to unlock this dilemma of lack of materials. This was an urgent problem that the central organs of the war guidance at that time racked their brains.

They predicted that regarding the impact of ship requisition, such as the current requisition, would reduce steel production in 1943 from 4.27 million tons this year to 3 million tons, and if all the requirements of the command were met, it would reduce to 2 million tons, which would have serious consequences for the war.

The Japanese had no choice but to issue a plan to deceive themselves, saying: If the commander only requisitions the ships that have become the source of cultivation and maintenance of national strength based on combat requirements, thus causing national strength exhaustion, which is something that the country cannot tolerate. Therefore, it should do everything possible in terms of organization, equipment, increasing ship carrying capacity, etc., and strive to save and reduce ships used for combat through naval ships assisting transportation, and carefully consider political and strategic requirements.

The war has reached such a point that it can only be fought with one's teeth. The Japanese's rigid and greedy thinking that they refused to spit out when they were eaten was once again prevailed. They fantasized that the US-Australia coalition forces could not bear the losses in the face of the brave and tenacious "Imperial Army", so they demanded peace talks to protect Nanyang.

With the Japanese in mind, in order to cause the US-Australia coalition forces in Southeast Asia to suffer unbearable losses, the "Imperial Army" would greatly increase its troops in Southeast Asia and form a military advantage to fight the US-Australia coalition forces in order to achieve the goal.

Due to this thinking, the base camp transferred the 8th Division, 9th Division, 11th Division, 12th Division, 71st Division and 1st Tank Division, which were originally planned to carry out the second phase of the Operation 5th Plan, to the South China Sea to block the US military. In order to fill the gap in the Kwantung Army, they hurriedly formed five divisions in China and arrived in "Manchukuo" in June.

These five new divisions are:

The 30th Division was formed in Pyongyang in May 1943 with the Fourth Regiment Division, which was the 41st, 74th, 77th Infantry Regiment and the 30th Field Artillery Regiment, etc. The division commander Asazaburo Kobayashi.

The 42nd Division was formed in Sendai, Japan in May 1943 with the 62nd** Infantry Group as its base, and was in charge of the 129th, 130th, 158th Infantry Regiment Field Artillery Regiment, etc., and the division commander Masazo Terakura.

The 43rd Division was formed in Sendai, Japan in May 1943 with the 63rd** Infantry Group as its base, and was in charge of the 43rd Field Artillery Regiment of the 118th, 135th, 136th Infantry Regiment, etc., and the division commander He Yang Gong Hengxianwang.

The 46th Division was formed in Japan in May 1943 with the 66th** Infantry Group as its base, and it was under the jurisdiction of the 123rd, 145, 147th Infantry Regiment Field Artillery Regiment, and the division commander Xuandao Gao.

The 47th Division was formed in May 1943 with the 67th** Infantry Group as the basic stake in Japan, and was in charge of the 91st, 105th, 131st Infantry Regiments and the 47th Mountain Artillery Regiments. The division commander Damao Tongzhen.

Ma Qian'an is ready to be discharged from the hospital. Before he was discharged, he received a report on the enemy's mobilization from the headquarters, and he really had some thoughts in his mind.

Haha! A group of old devils left, and a group of new devils came! Although several divisions of the Second Front Army of the Kwantung Army faced by the Anti-Japanese United Army did not leave, in the past few months of battle, several divisions under Anan Weiji's men were in urgent need of supplementary damage. If Mijiro Umezu was "smart" enough, he would not let go of these new recruits from China and draw a few regiments to supplement Anan Weiji.

Then, I really have to open up the Japanese meat at that time. The new Japanese meat is tender and delicious!


Chapter completed!