Chapter 1, Unprecedented
The ratio of deposit reserves for commercial banks also has an indirect impact on the stock market. When the People's Bank of China announces that it will increase the reserve ratio of commercial banks, it means shrinking monetary policy and reducing loans to enterprises, which is negative news; otherwise, it is equivalent to injecting water into the capital pool, and enterprises can get more loan opportunities, which is positive news.
Assuming that the deposit reserve of the People's Bank of China is 15%, it means that when the bank issues 70% of the loan - in actual operations, the bank will issue more, sometimes reach about 75%, but at the end of the month, it will definitely be controlled within 70% to prevent being punished by the People's Bank of China. This is called "big belly" - the bank has only 15% of its disposable funds left, is this money kept in the form of cash to ensure deposit redemption?
Not yet.
Think about it, if the bank has 10 billion yuan in deposits but has 1.5 billion yuan in cash in hand, then it would be better to lose money? Cash in the bank is called "interest-free assets", but where does this money come from? The deposits of ordinary people must be paid interest according to the number of days!
Moreover, large amounts of cash are not safe in bank outlets, which increases the risk of stolenness.
Therefore, banks will carefully calculate the cash position of each business outlet, control the cash ratio to around 6%-8%, and try not to accumulate too much cash. There is a deep knowledge in this regard, and it is necessary to use advanced mathematics, statistics, probability, etc., and it is also necessary to combine the regional characteristics of the business outlets, deposit structure and customer groups.
To give a simple example, business outlets require large amounts of cash to make an appointment one day in advance to ensure the normal operation of their positions. When they encounter reasonable customers, they strictly abide by it, but when they encounter poor quality, they slapped the counter:
"I will pay my money if I want to pay. What's the appointment? Let's have a date for you!"
When encountering such unreasonable customers, you can only pay with a smile on your face, because the appointment system is unilaterally stipulated by the bank, and it is not recognized if you go to court for a lawsuit.
The day before yesterday, Jiebei Savings Station encountered such a customer.
The main customer groups of Jiebei Savings Bank are a nearby antique market and two residential communities. The antique market has been closed for more than half a year, and the flow of residents' deposits is not very large. Considering that there are deposits and redemptions every day, and the large withdrawal appointment system, the cash position of the savings bank is controlled at around 300,000.
Unexpectedly, a small boss from the antique market came and took a certificate of deposit worth 300,000 and insisted on redemption. He said that I should not make an appointment when depositing, so why should I make an appointment when paying? I will pay me the money, otherwise I will complain to you!
Bank employees are most afraid of complaints. Once they do not care about the complaint, they will definitely deduct money. They are afraid that they will piece together and send him away.
After turning back, I had only 30,000 yuan left. I quickly called the branch to make a payment. The branch's treasury said that it was about to get off work now, and the armored trucks were all out to receive the payment package. Where could the vehicle give the payment? Persevere and talk about it tomorrow morning!
There were several depositors in front of the counter who wanted to do business, and the bank staff persuaded them to come back tomorrow morning - in fact, the seeds of distrust had been planted.
The common people don’t care about their positions, and with the recent rumors outside, they some doubt whether the bank has no money?
Yesterday morning, the ICBC warehouse was busy shipping the bags. After some busyness, I forgot to make payments for the Jiebei Savings Office. The counters were stunned when they looked at the cramped bags. How could this amount of money be opened?
So while continuing to do customer work patiently, he urged the warehouse to give money.
How much is it to give? About 400,000 or 500,000 is enough, but this is the case during the peak season. Regarding cash positions, the branch has performance appraisals for each savings bank. Too much use of assets that do not generate interest will affect the distribution of year-end bonuses.
The armored truck dragged the money to nearly 10 a.m., but the news of "the bank has no money" has spread quickly through the fast-talking aunts to two nearby residential communities. Twenty or thirty people came over and lined up from the business room to outside.
Seeing this, the head of the savings bank was sweating - there were signs of a run, but he was still young and didn't know the pros and cons, so he kept asking the warehouse to continue giving money, and secretly cared for the teller to slow down the speed of handling business.
Even so, hundreds of thousands were gone after more than an hour; the armored truck delivered another 700,000 yuan at noon, and it was run out again at 2:00 in the afternoon.
They all pay with certificates of deposit, and they have to withdraw in advance if they have not expired, but there is no deposit!
Originally, the bank's business outlets had deposits and payments, so the cash flow could be turned over. How could it be safe to do this? Then, the money was transferred to the vault and the reply said it was gone.
Not only is the ICBC vault lost, but the vaults of major banks in the city are gone!
Because around noon, the whole city of Jinbei was rumored that "the bank had no money", anxious citizens rushed to the bank to pay, which actually led to a run.
The requests from banks in northern Shanxi were summarized to the provincial bank. The total cash demand was about 3 billion yuan, and the provincial bank dared not agree!
Why?
The landlord's family doesn't have much food left.
We cannot empty the cash in the vault because of saturated supply in northern Shanxi. What if there is a chain reaction in other markets? In a panic, we are in a state of urgency.
Seeing that the province's cash has not arrived for a long time, banks in northern Shanxi made a decision after secret discussions: close the door early at 4 pm!
Isn’t this a matter of confirming the rumors that the bank is going to go bankrupt if it has no money? But what’s the use of opening a business without money? The customer group will really ruin the bank if it gets angry. It’s not a joke.
It is related to your own wealth and life. Don’t worry if you fall on anyone.
Anxious citizens think that your bank will close early, but you will have to open tomorrow, so just queue up and wait! This creates a wonder of long queues in front of every bank outlet in the city.
Just as the chaos in northern Shanxi was in full swing, Shen Zhihua came to inspect in the evening, listened to the reports of the presidents of various banks and realized the severity of the situation. He then went around the city and saw the shocking scene at the scene. He immediately made a decision to block it from several aspects, quickly reported to the Kyoto Banking Regulatory Commission, the People's Bank of China and other relevant departments, and asked the northern Shanxi to negotiate urgently and implement response measures tomorrow morning.
"Are you still having a meeting now?" Fang Sheng asked.
Shen Zhihua said: "Comrade Shengnong is presided over the meeting. The main reason is that I thought about it later. I think you are good at handling group events - runs are also special forms of group events. Please come and grasp the general direction temporarily, so don't let those dizzy guys mess up the situation more and more."
After hearing these words, Fang Sheng became more and more impressed. Shen Zhihua was not just stable, but quite stable!
Regardless of whether you have the ability or responsibility or not, you must attend the meeting as soon as possible when encountering such a serious bank run, and at least you must closely grasp the dynamics.
Shen Zhihua did not. He retreated steadily and asked Yu Shengnong to preside over the meeting. The implication was that whoever cleaned up the mess and who would be responsible!
But Chen Zhihua's stability is not just about shirking responsibility at critical moments. He actually thought of calling himself over. This is also true - Chang Shen is the first person in charge of financial stability. Of course, he will come to the scene if something happens, even if you take office on the first day.
"Okay, I'll go to the venue to have a look..."
Fang Sheng was about to go out, and someone knocked on the door lightly. Yu Shengnong brought the timid secretary Ouyang Town and mayor He Ya in, saying that the emergency consultation was basically over. Four measures were initially finalized, and we will report to the two provincial leaders first:
First, each bank also announced that some business outlets would be closed, and only designated business departments and two to three outlets would be open normally;
Second, all Atm automatic equipment in the city will be suspended;
Third, strictly implement the large-scale withdrawal appointment system. Appointments of more than 200,000 yuan must be made one day in advance, and no one-time supply is promised;
Fourth, in principle, no cash will be withdrawn from redemption tomorrow. Transfer to the bank card for more than 50,000 yuan first. After ten days, you can withdraw cash from the Atm automatic machine.
In addition, Yu Shengnong emphasized the need to send more police force to maintain order at night, and at the same time, the news was strictly blocked to avoid negative impacts on nearby urban areas.
Chen Zhihua seemed to think it made sense after hearing this, but he, who was born with a steady state, would not express his opinion easily, but turned to Fang Sheng and asked:
"What does Chief Fang Shen think?"
At this time, the deputy chiefs of the provincial government, including the Finance, Development and Reform Commission, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the People's Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, and the Bank of China and the Insurance Regulatory Commission, came in one after another, and surrounded the circle and waited for the provincial leaders to make a decision.
Fang Sheng pondered for a long time in front of everyone and said, "After the deposit certificate is redeemed, the amount is transferred to the bank card. Citizens don't want to wait for ten days, so they run to a nearby bank branch with their bank cards in their arms to withdraw cash? Hundreds of people a day, thousands of people go out, and within two days the bank run will spread throughout the province!"
After he reminded Chen Zhihua, he was shocked and said, "That won't work. Kyoto repeatedly emphasized on-site digestion and must not expand the impact!"
"And I think the customer on Beijie said it well. I don't need to make an appointment to deposit in your bank. Why do I need to make an appointment to pay? The unit has strong liquidity in corporate customers and has a big impact on the bank's cash position. There is no reason to make a deposit redemption appointment, and it cannot be restricted from transferring the card after redemption. In that way, the authority and guarantee ability of the bank will disappear. Even if the risks are resolved, citizens' trust in the bank will be greatly reduced. At least three years, the total amount of deposits in northern Shanxi will hover at a low level!"
Fang Sheng then said, "It's even worse to think that the business outlets are closed! What is the purpose of bank business? Deposit and loans are just the most basic business of the bank. Its social function is actually transfer settlement. Comrades! The economic situation in northern Shanxi and the social situation is already so bad. If the settlement function is blocked, the company's production and working capital cannot come in and out, all the allocations of government agencies and institutions cannot be in place, the project funds are stuck halfway, and everyone's wages cannot be paid, and the water, electricity, telephone fees cannot be paid. Isn't this the real scene after the bank bankruptcy caused by the bank's bankruptcy? Secretary Chen and I just thought about it and felt creepy, but the comrades boldly implemented it, not afraid of causing the whole city to attack... the whole city will attack it?"
Ouyang Town, He Ya was sweating and ashamed by Fang Sheng's words, and Chen Zhihua said:
Chapter completed!