Chapter 400 How to Make Decisions
"Can we judge the operational age of this alien probe?" Yuan Shichen asked.
"Although the report leader cannot calculate the specific years, based on the operating losses of internal components, we judge that the operational life of this alien probe will not exceed 20 years." Tesla replied seriously and rigorously.
"In this way, the technological gap in these 20 years must also be considered." said Yuan Shichen.
"Why, the opponent's strength assessment has been strengthened again!" Military commander Sergei said with wide eyes.
"Yes, this is indeed the case." Science commander Don Gilleshode also thought so.
"So what should we make the next step? The Expeditionary Fleet is about to catch up. We are only 21 light years away from the base camp of this unknown universe civilization."
Sergei looked around and asked, then everyone looked at Yuan Shichen again.
"Everyone, please imagine, if an unknown cosmic civilization suddenly visits the Nai-Ri Galaxy, what will you react?" Yuan Nai-Shen kicked the ball to everyone in a blink of an eye.
"Beware!! Be highly vigilant!!" Sergei replied in a concise and loud voice.
"We should first understand the intentions of this unknown civilization from the Sun galaxy and their goodwill. Then we should adopt further response strategies." Don Gilleshode also expressed his views.
"How can we understand the other party's purpose and whether they are good or evil to human civilization?" Yuan Shichen asked a question, "Without sufficient communication, we cannot judge whether the other party is good or malicious. Similarly, the other party cannot judge whether we think they are good or malicious."
"Although the dark civilization once clearly stated that there are certain social rules in this universe, we still have not fully understood and understood this set of cosmic sociology that describes the great picture of the universe and society. Perhaps, this is because our level of civilization is enough, so, and so on, the unknown cosmic civilization in the galaxy ahead is like us, and does not understand the true cosmic sociology. Therefore, the communication between us will inevitably enter a circular contradiction of mutual suspicion."
Sociologists believe that due to the distance, significant species and cultural differences, suspicion between different cosmic civilizations becomes indestructible once it is formed. The emergence of suspicion has nothing to do with the specific moral orientations within the two civilizations, but it ultimately leads to the inability of accurately judging each other's good and evil, and becomes hostile to each other.
This is similar to the basic concept in game theory. In the final analysis, it is due to poor information or information asymmetry, which leads to an insurmountable barrier to communication between different cosmic civilizations!
Perhaps there is a clear set of cosmic sociology among high-level cosmic civilizations, but the backward cosmic civilizations are still in a relatively primitive stage. It is like the natural killing and prey of the jungle between different animals, which does not violate the wild animal protection laws formulated by humans.
"So, how should we break this cycle of suspicion?" At this moment, Sergei felt a little overwhelmed.
"One thing is that we must first be clear." Harashi Hashichen patted Sergei on the shoulder, not directly talking about the questions he raised, but changed the subject, "Our goal is Cygnus x-1, so we must avoid war along the way. Whether to cross the star system group ahead or significantly correct the route of the expeditionary fleet regardless of losses depends on what kind of opponent we face."
"If there is a weak cosmic civilization ahead, the expeditionary army can advance straight. On the contrary, if the opponent is too strong, we have no choice but to turn around and leave without regard to losses." Yuan Shichen continued, "The opponents ahead are comparable to ours in terms of technology, but they are a complete civilized world, and we are naturally incomparable in terms of military strength. Therefore, if the two sides fight head-on, we will inevitably be at the bottom of the front."
"So, can we only adjust the route to ensure safety?" Don Gilleshode asked back.
"But it's really not a good deal to adjust the route significantly." Sergey didn't agree with the adjustment of the route, "After all, the other party's technological strength is below us."
"Can we be prepared for both hands and play a side ball?" Sergei suddenly suggested.
"Tell me what you think." Yuan Shichen nodded to him.
"First-hand preparation, there is still a certain distance between the star systems ahead. We can choose to quickly pass through the edge of the star system that is the most barren and least conspicuous (the stars are weaker or have no planets). Of course, this plan may take certain risks. Second-hand preparation, we can try to communicate with the other party, because only communication is the best way to break the cycle of suspicion. However, active communication will definitely expose our existence, so it has a greater risk." Sergei replied.
"Indeed, we can try to pass by the unknown universe civilization ahead. If it is discovered and cannot be beaten, we can still run away. As long as it is not a head-on conflict or is trapped in an unbreakable encirclement, it should not pose a substantial threat to the expeditionary force. However, the risk of actively communicating with the other party is too great. If communication is not smooth and the other party grasps our movements, then they may concentrate their efforts to ambush or chase us. If so, the risks we face will also be doubled.
"The reason why I think the risk of communication is greater is the first step to suspecting the cycle of suspicion. Although communication is better than closing the country most of the time, the unknown universe civilization ahead is like us, and there is no unified cosmic sociology foundation for cosmics. Therefore, when communicating, we will inevitably be concerned about the contradiction between interests and risks. In addition, the other party will definitely be afraid. When we discover their civilized world, they do not know where we come from."
"You think the other party will be worried that we will become their actual threat in the future!" Sergey asked.
"Isn't it?" Yuan Shichen asked, "Sergei, you might as well put yourself in your shoes. This is also the reason why human civilization finally chose to stay away from the solar system after the disaster."
"In fact, isn't the case with the Sun and the galaxy? God knows what kind of eyes are countless super cosmic civilizations staring at us in this vast universe?" Yuan Shichen added meaningfully.
"What eyes?" Sergei muttered softly, "Do you appreciate the eyes of animals?"
"No matter what, we must make a decision as soon as possible!" Yuan Shichen concluded, "Tang Jikede, you lead the scientific team to analyze all the star systems ahead, and formulate the most appropriate route to move forward so that the expeditionary fleet can pass by this unknown universe civilization."
"What if I'm found out?" Tesla, who had been silent, seemed a little nervous.
"It doesn't matter if you find it out. The other party is not far beyond our opponent. What we need to do is to control the risks to the minimum range and try to avoid conflicts. As long as we try our best, we still have to face what we should face!" Yuan Shichen answered decisively.
"Oh," Tesla nodded and remained silent again.
Chapter completed!