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Chapter 156, the general trend of gold standard reform

In this world, there are always people who are proud and some are frustrated.

The biggest loser of the London Peace Conference is undoubtedly the Ottoman Empire and the Kingdom of Poland. The former lost the city and land, the people were tired of livelihood, and the latter was even more self-destructive.

Putting aside the details, from a general point of view, the five countries of Britain, France, Austria, Russia and P.R. are all winners and each achieved their strategic goals.

The Russians performed particularly well, taking benefits from both ends, as if the arrogant Russian Empire was back.

However, Alexander II, who is considered the biggest winner, is really not happy now. The recovery of lost territory this time greatly boosted the morale of the army, which was originally a good thing.

Unfortunately, the Tsarist government couldn't afford it, and it was all just one word to make a fuss - "poor". After the war, rewards are always indispensable in terms of merit and practice, and some pensions must be given. Who will work hard if you don't lose a penny once?

The destructive power of the war is huge. The lost land recovered by the Tsarist government now needs to invest money to restore people's livelihood, and there will be no return in the short term.

All of these require money. They seem inconspicuous, but in fact, it is not enough to have hundreds of millions of rubles.

Alexander II has long been no longer expected to borrow money. International financial institutions are afraid of being played by them. Whoever lends them money is a fool.

St. Petersburg, Winter Palace

Alexander II asked uncertainly: "Can the reform of the gold standard really help us overcome the financial crisis?"

Currently, only Britain and Austria have completed the reform of the gold standard among the great powers. Everyone knows that the gold standard is conducive to stabilizing the currency value and increasing the international competitiveness of the currency, but everyone is still waiting and watching.

It’s not that I don’t want to follow the example, the question is what to do if there is not enough gold reserves? Britain and Austria monopolize more than 75% of the world’s gold, making other countries desperate.

The Russian Empire is good because the market purchasing power is low, and the Russians have little demand for foreign industrial and commercial products. After wiping out the foreign exchange expenses created by agricultural product exports, they are still in a state of oversight.

However, such good days only lasted until before the Prussian-Russian War. Due to the war, the Tsarist government's finances deteriorated and owed a large amount of foreign debts. In order to repay the debt, gold and silver began to flow out in large quantities.

The outflow of gold and silver led to domestic deflation and the government's finances further deteriorated. In order to avoid the intensification of the crisis, the Tsarist government was forced to declare bankruptcy and debt.

After several years of rest, the Russian Empire finally recovered. Through diplomatic means, most of the debt was erased, and an agreement was reached with the British, using food deductions to repay, and the Russian Empire's economy gradually normalized.

However, financial problems are still the biggest problem of the Tsarist government. In order to change the financial difficulties, the Tsarist government issued paper rubles with the help of Austria in 1871.

This is just a test of the waters. The first batch of issuances was only 50 million rubles. The gold and silver replica system was implemented. The Tsarist government's reserves were sufficient and were quickly digested by the market.

As the relationship between Russia and Austria deteriorated, the financial circles of the Tsarist government tended to cooperate with the British, and the situation took a sharp turn for the worse.

Without Austria's endorsement, the second batch of paper rubles was too large and it was cold in the capital market. In order to maintain the ratio, the Tsarist government had to stop printing.

Britain and Russia agreed that the ruble would join the pound-the gold system, and the Tsarist government would have to carry out gold standard reforms.

The Russian Empire is also the world's major gold and silver producer. Its domestic economic scale is not large, and import and export trade is generally in a balanced state. In theory, there is no problem with the Tsarist government carrying out gold standard reforms.

This is only theoretical. After being combined with the credibility of the Tsarist government, this situation changed. International capital does not recognize it at all. Unless it is linked to international currency, the Tsarist government alone cannot complete the gold standard reform.

This involves the issue of currency settlement. Whether it is linked to pounds or ASCH, it is very welcome. The conditions are very simple and can only be settled using other people's currency.

No matter who he moved closer, the Russian Empire was inevitably sheared. Alexander II didn't care about shearing her. He was more concerned about how much benefit it could bring after the currency reform and whether he could get rid of the financial crisis.

Secretary of Finance Christenval: "Your Majesty, after theoretically completing the currency reform, we can get a seigniorage of 52 million to 55 million rubles per year.

This money continues to increase with the economic growth. It will be of great help to improve our fiscal situation."

(Note: 1 new ruble = 0.774 grams of gold)

More than 50 million gold rubles, this number is no small, exceeding one-tenth of the fiscal revenue of the Tsarist government.

To maintain the continuous growth of seigniorage, in addition to economic growth, it is also necessary to ensure that there is enough gold.

Christaval is not worried about the reserves issue. The Russian Empire's annual gold production is still enough for reserves. Otherwise, he would not dare to reform the gold standard.

You should know that after the currency reform, the newly issued gold rubles will be linked to the pound, and the exchange rate will change in fluctuations and there is no sufficient reserve to stabilize the currency value.

After hesitating for a while, Alexander II made a decision: "Then let's start! However, when cooperating with the British, you must be vigilant and not be deceived by them."

Taking this step means that Russia and Austria have begun to split in finance, and it also marks that the end of the Russian-Austrian alliance is not far away.

There is no way, it is all caused by interests. The Tsarist government disliked Austria's bids too low, and Franz felt that the Russians were too greedy and invested too much and could not recover the costs.

The French in the original time and space were cheated and cried. The Tsarist government fell, and all the huge debts owed were wasted, and the French consortium was severely damaged.

As the past is learned, Franz naturally chose to be cautious. Austria's risk of investing in Russians is greater than that of the French. With the Russian style, no one can guarantee that the debt will be greater to a certain extent. Will the Russians provoke a war between the two countries in order to make a debt?

Of course, the Austrian financial industry is not as rich as the British financial industry, which is also an important factor. After all, Austria itself has a large demand for funds and is unable to give money to the Russians to fill in the pit.

If the Tsarist government cannot get out of the fiscal crisis as soon as possible, once the currency reform is completed, the ruble will be tied to the pound, and it is also an unknown whether the British will still be willing to borrow money.

The debt between Russia and Austria is already a dangerous figure. Franz dares not take hundreds of millions of ASUS shields to accompany the Russians to take risks. Once he loses money, the economy of Austria will be severely damaged.

...

Not only the Russians wanted to carry out the gold standard reform, but also the French were more anxious than them.

In recent years, silver production has been increasing, and the gold-silver exchange ratio has also changed. This is a big problem for replica currencies.

Affected by the exchange rate of gold and silver, the currency value of the francs often changes, which makes it a pity for merchants engaged in international trade.

The unstable currency value of the franc has undoubtedly weakened the overseas competitiveness of French goods. With the vigorous development of international trade, this change has become increasingly serious.

Before 1854, France's total foreign export trade was more than 1.5 times that of Austria. By 1870, the total foreign export trade between the two countries was almost the same, and now it has been counterattacked by Austria.

Although there are natural resource advantages, for example, the Austrian agricultural product finishing industry has developed, increasing the added value of products, driving the growth of exports, and taking the lead in launching the Second Industrial Revolution, bringing benefits.

The unstable currency value of francs is also an important factor. In order to avoid the uncertain risks brought about by changes in currency value, under the same conditions, many capitalists would rather choose British and Austrian products.

In the past five years, the average annual growth rate of export trade between Britain and Austria has not been less than 3%, while France is only a pitiful 0.8%, and this number is still falling.

Is the quality of industrial and commercial products in France poor? The answer is no. Except for some industries, there is no gap between the times in the industrial technology of Britain, France and Austria.

Now the market competition has not reached a white-hot stage, and everyone is maintaining relatively high profits, otherwise they will not grow together.

However, it is an indisputable fact that France gradually falls behind. French goods occupy a smaller and smaller market share in the international market.

Of course, compared with the original time and space, France's current situation is still much better, and the domestic economy has not suffered heavy losses.

In order to increase the competitiveness of export commodities, the reform of the Franc currency value has gradually been put on the agenda. It was Napoleon IV who led the reform of the Franc gold standard.

This is also considered a political legacy left to him by Napoleon III. As long as the Franc gold standard reform is completed and the international competitiveness of French commodities is increased, it can gain the support of capitalists.

As early as 1870, the French government began to prepare for the reform of the gold standard and constantly purchased gold from the international market. There is no way, who made France's gold production insufficient?

God did not favor France this time. In addition to lack of coal, the gold output in the French colonies was also very low.

If you don’t have it, just buy it. Compared with the miserable Tsarist government, the French government can be said to be rich and powerful.

After several years of preparation, the French raised up 800 tons of gold, which Napoleon IV still disliked.

This number is already a lot for most countries, but it is still far from that of Britain and Austria.

Moreover, with the current economic size of the Great French Empire, there is really not much reserved for 800 tons of gold. Napoleon IV's bottom line was 1,000 tons. If the reserves were low, it would be a big trouble for someone to speculate on the exchange rate of francs.

Paris, Palace of Versailles

Napoleon IV asked incrediblely: "What, the market can't receive gold?"

This is definitely a big news if it is spread, at least the price of gold will soar sharply.

Chancellor Allen explained bitterly: "Your Majesty, there are many countries that have carried out gold standard reforms in recent years, and everyone is rushing to buy gold in the market.

Currently, the major gold production areas in the world are in the hands of Britain and Austria. They have intentionally controlled the gold outflow, and the amount of gold circulating on the market is seriously insufficient.

In recent years, due to insufficient gold circulation, gold prices have continued to rise, and the gold-silver exchange ratio has increased from 1:18.6 last year to 1:23.5 now.

Even at this price, it is difficult for us to buy enough gold. Now there are only two or three hundred tons of gold flowing out in the international market every year, which is not enough for everyone to share."

There is no way, there are really many countries that have recently undergone gold standard reforms.

In 1873, the Nordic Federation began the gold standard reform, followed by the German Federal Empire, the Kingdom of Prussia, and now another Russian Empire has been added.

Regardless of the Russian Empire, the domestic gold flow can basically meet the needs of monetary reform, and the remaining countries are not the main gold producers.

Gold production may not be enough, but the reserves for issuing currencies must be enough, so you can only buy them in the international market.

At the critical moment of gold standard reform in European countries, the capital of Britain and Austria jointly speculated on gold and made huge profits from it.

It should not be said to be just right, this is an inevitable result. Capital is profit-seeking, and the robberies delivered to the door will not be knocked out.

In this context, not only the French lack gold, but other countries that are undergoing gold standard reforms are also facing the problem of insufficient gold.
Chapter completed!
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