Regarding the reasons for the conflict between the Mongolian and Yuan dynasties, Zhao Bing was at a height, the diversification of information sources and the way of thinking different from those of the people of this era, which allowed Zhao Bing to basically restore the truth of the conflict, and also allowed him to understand the current psychological state of Yuxi Timuer and Ma Shao, and then predict the situation and intensity of the conflict.

Zhao Bing thought that although Yuxi Timur and Ma Shao had different reasons for provoking conflict, their mental states were the same. They both hoped to change the current situation through a victory and get rid of the current dilemma. But they actually understood that their own side had little chance of winning, but they were determined to provoke a war, which was actually a bet.

The boat yard where Zhao Bing was located in his previous life was remote and far away from the prosperous city, so he naturally lacked entertainment activities. Playing cards and touching a few mahjong after work became the main leisure activities, and these games often brought a little lottery, otherwise they would still lack interest over time. Although he only participated occasionally, he was able to observe the changes in the mentality of gambling people at close range.

Some people play cards purely to spend time with a small gambling mentality. The bets are generally very small, and they can win or lose at most a few dozen yuan a night, which will not have much impact on their lives, and they will not take it seriously even if they lose it. However, Zhao Bing found that their behaviors when they win money at the gambling table are very different.

If there are two options, one is the 100% probability of losing; the other is that half of the probability of losing doubled, half of the probability of not making or losing, most people will choose the latter. On the contrary, if option one is the 100% probability of winning, and the other is the 200% probability of not making or losing, and half of the probability of doubled, then most people will choose the former.

However, not everyone is gambled with a playful attitude. Some people just hope to be rich by gambling or pursue the stimulation of what they do, so the bet is very big. Some people will lose all the salary they just paid in one night. Of course, some people will become rich overnight. However, there is no difference between those who lose money and those who win money. They will continue to play, but their psychology is different.

Zhao Bing still remembers that a playing card game called "Zajinhua" was popular at that time. Some people who lost money hope to draw a draw later to avoid losses. Indeed, this kind of game has the possibility of using small to make a big fortune in terms of rules. You can place a small bet on a deck of cards with extremely small chances of winning, and the chance of winning is naturally very small, so the probability of winning is very small; of course, you can also place a big bet on a big winning card, and the probability of turning the ball will naturally increase accordingly.

When the actual amount of winning or losing is the same as the expected result, if Zhao Bing feels that he will be more inclined to bet on a hand with a high probability of winning, thereby increasing the chance of turning the ball. However, Zhao Bing observed that people who lose money tend to win big money with small bets with very low probability (such as grabbing a flush) gameplay, but he does not like big bets that may cause greater losses, even if the latter has a higher probability of turning the ball.

In addition, Zhao Bing also found another psychological problem for gamblers through observing the people in the game, that is, those who win money do not seem to regard the winning money as "money". This psychology is very common. gamblers often say a sentence: "Gam with the money of the dealer." That is to say, when winning money, you are gambling with the money of the dealer rather than your own. The saying that the money of the dealer comes easily and goes quickly is very applicable.

Based on this, Zhao Bing discovered a rule that when the loss is within the tolerance range, no one will have the preference to pursue risk. However, when the loss exceeds expectations, when there is a chance to turn the situation, most people will choose to make an uncertain win or lose. So he thought that when people face huge losses, if they have a chance to turn the price, even if they are usually risk-averse, they are generally willing to take risks at this time.

Some people say that they are not good at gambling, so Isn’t this nonsense to talk to me about this? In fact, life is a gambling game, and we are always deep in it and don’t know it. We often have to decide what kind of risks we should take. After taking risks, it will bring us certain consequences, and after the gambling game, it often determines what kind of life we ​​will have.

In fact, none of us can be outside it, because society is like a huge casino, everyone must live in this casino, use their own efforts to gain tomorrow. The targets of gambling include not only money, but also positions; there is a stability of the regime, and there is victory or defeat in wars; there is a chance of work and a happy marriage. People in gambling all have the hope of being able to use gambling rules to the greatest extent and make the best decisions, that is, to guide the increase of their own income through the rules.

People usually call those who are not symbolic "small money" that are enough to destroy themselves as gamblers. Zhao Bing believes that there are too many bets in the world we live in. In fact, we are taking risks every moment, minute and second. The strategies used to deal with various situations in the real world are actually similar to those used in gambling. Therefore, so many gamblers have been born in the world, and not everyone can get the rewards that satisfy themselves in the bet...

In the eyes of researchers, the gambler has his own set of theories, which is called the gambler fallacy. Its characteristic is that he always believes that his expected goals will come, just like when betting on roulette, the probability of red or black appearing in each game is half. However, the gambler believes that if he bet on red and black appears several times in a row, the proportion of chances of red appearing next time will increase. If this is not the case, then it is more certain next time. This is a typical unreasonable principle, and in fact, each chance will always be half.

But in Zhao Bing's eyes, the gamblers were a group of madmen who dared to gamble and take risks, and to achieve their goals, they could do whatever they could, even at the cost of their lives. Their biggest characteristic was madness. Originally, they only made a bet of ten yuan, but they lost; so he made another bet of ten yuan, but he lost again; now, he started to place a bet of twenty yuan, but he still lost; then he was thirty yuan, but he still lost...

However, the more they lose, the more they need to increase their gambling money. Because they always want to make a profit, they repeatedly chase high prices and try to make a profit, thinking that a big bet would win back all the money they lost in the previous few times. So in order to recover their own worries, he used the method of constantly playing big.

In addition, gamblers also have an unknown mentality, and sometimes they regret it. At the beginning, they put a ten-dollar bet and lost; at the same time, they reduced the bet to five yuan. It seemed quite rational, but it was not the case. If he won the five yuan, he would be annoyed: Alas, he should have increased the bet at the beginning; if he lost these five yuan, he would lose, and losing money might make him feel glad: Fortunately, he lowered the bet, otherwise he would lose even worse.

Now the two Jiangbei people are gamblers in Zhao Bing's eyes. Although Yuxi Timur has a good background, he lost the emperor's favor because he stood in the wrong team in the political struggle that year, and even lost the position of Chang Qiexue, the hereditary position, and he had been in the northern border for a long time to fight against the rebels. It cannot be said that there is no meaning of punishment. In his opinion, this transfer to the south is also an opportunity, and it is possible to regain the favor of the Khan and restore the family's glory.

However, after taking office, Yuxi Timuer found that the situation was not as optimistic as he imagined. Da Khan did not leave him to serve in Beijing, but took over the hot charcoal left by Boyan, and was responsible for the heavy responsibility of seizing Jiangnan. He knew that this was not only the expectation of Da Khan, but also a disguised test for him. If it could not be completed, he knew that his fate would be even worse, even more pitiful than Boyan, and he might not even have the chance to return to the north.

However, Zhao Bing believed that Yuxi Timuer, as a veteran on the battlefield, also understood the current situation and it was difficult to seize Jiangnan again. Especially after years of peace, the two Duwanhu Mansions had no longer had the courage of the past. The combat effectiveness under a loose sand was much worse than that of the Northern Army. The Southern Dynasties' army was indeed more and more courageous as the war was fought. The defense of Jiang was not airtight, so it was easier to talk about it in the past.

The expansion of Sang Ge's hook test brought a crisis to Yuxi Timuer, but it also made him keenly discover the opportunity. In the crisis, the generals could only gather together to keep warm and must obey his orders, otherwise they would be killed as chickens. In addition, if you want to survive this crisis safely, you have to cross the Yangtze River and advance to the south of the Yangtze River. Although the chance of winning is still not great, it is considered as the capital to make a gamble.

In Zhao Bing's view, Ma Shao's promise was out of the atmosphere on the surface, but in fact he was also a gambler. However, he bet not for promotion and wealth, but for the future of the scholars in Jiangbei, hoping to regain the trust of the Khan in a victory, so as to regain power and realize his long-cherished wish of governing the country and pacifying the world. In Zhao Bing's eyes, he was even more crazy because the living environment of the scholars in Jiangbei was already harsh enough, and he had reached the lowest point, and there was nothing he could not afford to lose.

At this time, Zhao Bing sat at the gambling table regardless of whether he wanted or did not want to. How could he stop when facing the two gamblers? Zhao Bing understood that when he won money, the gamblers would not stop. Under the influence of greed and luck, they would probably continue to bet until the situation reversed. When they lost, they would wait until they lost all their money and not have a penny left. They would not stop until they had to stop.
Chapter completed!